BREAKING: Kamala Harris Leads Donald Trump In Three Crucial Battleground States [FULL LIST]—-Immediate President Of United States, Donald Trump suffered a polling blow in three critical battleground states, after new data shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Since President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race and endorsed Harris to succeed him on the ticket, polls have changed significantly. Whereas most polling data previously showed Trump leading Biden nationally as well as in battleground states, that has now shifted—with Harris appearing to have an advantage nationally, as well as in some critical states.
Due to the Electoral College system, several battleground states have outsized influence on the presidential election. Candidates can lose the popular vote nationwide and still win by carrying enough states that are not solidly Republican or Democratic. This cycle, if Harris can win all the solidly Democratic states Biden won in 2020 and also secure victories in the swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, she should be able to win the Electoral College.
Polling data published Saturday morning by The New York Times/Siena College, which has been rated as the America’s most accurate pollster by ABC News’ polling analysis site 538, showed Harris leading Trump by 4 percent in all of the three swing states. The Democratic vice president was at 50 percent in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while the former Republican president was at 46 percent.
The survey included 619 voters in Michigan, 693 in Pennsylvania and 661 in Wisconsin. Margins of error in each state were plus or minus 4.8, 4.2 and 4.3 percentage points, respectively.
The poll was carried out from August 6 to 9.
When contacted for comment on Saturday morning, the Trump campaign sent Newsweek different polling by Trafalgar Group published on Friday; it showed the former president narrowly leading in the three battleground states, as well as in Nevada, North Carolina and Arizona. Trafalgar Group is described by the analysts 538 as a “partisan” pollster affiliated with the Republican Party.
The Trump campaign later on Saturday sent Newsweek an X post from David Axelrod, a political consultant and former aide to President Barack Obama, which raised potential issues with the new polling data from the Times.
“As for NYT polls in PA, MI and WI today, some of the internal numbers seem improbable—42% for Harris among non-college whites, for one eg. If you adjust for them, you’re probably looking at basically tied races (maybe a tick better for Harris in WI), which is where most, private, high-quality polling has them.
Still, this is a big shift,” Axelrod wrote on the social media platform.
