BREAKING: Tinubu Led Government Rattled Over Likely Obi/Kwankwaso Ticket
When former presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, formally joined the African Democratic Congress (ADC) last week, it was a development that signalled a potentially profound shift in Nigeria’s political landscape ahead of the 2027 general elections.
For many observers, Kwankwaso’s move instantly transformed the ADC from a relatively modest opposition platform into a formidable political vehicle capable of mounting a serious challenge to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Kano State, from which Kwankwaso hails, has long been regarded as Nigeria’s electoral heartbeat. With the largest voting population in the country, the state has historically played a decisive role in determining national election outcomes. Over the years, Kwankwaso himself has built a formidable political structure in the state through the influential Kwankwasiyya Movement, making him one of the most powerful political figures in northern Nigeria.
The symbolism of his defection was, therefore, unmistakable. Kwankwaso completed his registration into the ADC at his residence, Gidan Kwankwasiyya, located on Miller Road in the Bompai area of Kano. There, he was formally issued his party membership card in the presence of a large crowd of supporters and political associates.
Videos from the event quickly went viral on social media, showing enthusiastic supporters chanting “Obi-Kwankwado,” an apparent reference to a possible presidential ticket pairing between Kwankwaso and former Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi.
A Fearful Ticket
Though neither politician has publicly confirmed such an alliance, the chant captured the imagination of many Nigerians eager for a consolidated opposition platform capable of challenging the APC in 2027.
The key worry for many in the opposition camp had been whether the party would be able to produce its presidential and vice presidential candidates without rancour. But for the APC, it seems, the worry runs deeper.
In the 2023 presidential election, Obi secured over 6.1 million votes while Kwankwaso garnered about 1.5 million votes, the overwhelming majority of which came from Kano State. Together with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who polled nearly seven million votes on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the three candidates collectively secured around 15 million votes.
By contrast, President Bola Tinubu of the APC won the election with approximately 8.8 million votes.
For opposition strategists, the implication is obvious: if the leading opposition figures were to align under a single political platform, the electoral arithmetic could dramatically alter the balance of power in 2027.
Kwankwaso’s move into the ADC, therefore, carries implications that extend far beyond Kano State.
He did not join the party alone. Also defecting was Dr. Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna, former deputy governor in Kano State and the APC’s governorship candidate in the 2023 election. Gawuna stepped down as Chairman of the Governing Board of the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN) to align himself with the ADC.
The move signalled what many analysts interpret as a significant political realignment within Kano’s political elite. For the APC, the development has raised serious concerns.
Although the ruling party has continued to attract sitting governors and elected officials from other parties, the emergence of a credible opposition coalition remains one of its most significant political threats.
Several APC figures have already acknowledged the potential impact of Kwankwaso’s defection.
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Bashir Ahmad, a former presidential aide and prominent APC supporter from Kano, warned that the ruling party must not underestimate the political strength of the former governor.
“I am from Kano, which is why I will never undermine the political strength of Sen. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso,” Ahmad wrote on his X (formerly Twitter) account. “In my active political life, only the late President Buhari was able to consistently defeat him at both the state and national levels. We will certainly make every effort to do that again, but one thing is clear, it will not come easy.”
Another APC chieftain, Alwan Hassan, was even more blunt. Speaking during an appearance on ARISE Television, Hassan acknowledged that the ruling party could face serious electoral challenges if Kwankwaso succeeds in consolidating his political base under the ADC.
“We are in big trouble for losing Kwankwaso to ADC,” he admitted.
According to Hassan, the former governor’s grassroots political machinery in Kano and the wider North-West region could significantly strengthen the opposition platform. “Kwankwaso commands a loyal grassroots following, especially in Kano and across the North-West,” he said.
“This defection is not something the APC should take lightly. It could reshape the political landscape.”
For many observers, these public comments offer a rare glimpse into the level of concern within the ruling party over the possibility of a unified opposition front.
Indeed, sources within the political establishment suggest that the rapid consolidation of opposition forces around the ADC has unsettled key figures within the Tinubu administration.
Although the presidency has publicly dismissed allegations of interference in opposition politics, critics argue that recent developments surrounding the leadership crisis within the ADC have raised troubling questions about the neutrality of Nigeria’s electoral institutions.
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An Impartial Umpire
Those concerns intensified dramatically on April 1, when the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced that it was withdrawing recognition of the David Mark-led leadership of the ADC.
The commission said its decision followed a judgment of the Court of Appeal in a case involving former Senate President David Mark and Hon. Nafiu Bala Gombe.
According to INEC, the ruling required the commission to maintain the “status quo” pending the final determination of the substantive case before the Federal High Court in Abuja.
As part of its decision, the commission removed the names of Mark and former Osun State governor, Rauf Aregbesola, who served as National Chairman and National Secretary of the party respectively, from its official records.
INEC also announced that it would suspend engagement with all factions claiming leadership of the party until the legal dispute was resolved. Furthermore, the commission declared that it would not monitor or recognise any meeting, congress or convention organised by any group within the party during the pendency of the litigation.
While the commission insisted that its actions were purely administrative and in compliance with court orders, the decision immediately sparked a wave of controversy.
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Critics argued that the move effectively paralysed the operations of one of the country’s fastest-rising opposition parties at a critical moment in the political calendar. Among the most outspoken critics was Professor Chidi Odinkalu, former chairman of the National Human Rights Commission.
In a series of posts on social media, Odinkalu suggested that the INEC chairman may have acted under significant political pressure.
“This release by INEC followed a meeting involving senior leaders of the Commission and other powerful institutions within the last 60 hours,” Odinkalu alleged.
He went further, claiming that the chairman of the electoral commission may have been compelled to comply with political directives due to undisclosed pressures surrounding his appointment.
“I have it on the most impeccable authority that there is a pre-signed resignation letter by the chairman,” Odinkalu wrote.
“It was a pre-condition for his appointment, and the threat of releasing it did the magic.”
Although the allegation has not been independently verified, it added fuel to an already heated political debate. For many legal experts, the central issue revolves around the interpretation of the Court of Appeal’s directive to maintain the “status quo ante bellum.”
Human rights lawyer Abdul Mahmud argued that the electoral commission should not have attempted to interpret the court’s order on its own.
“INEC should have approached the Court of Appeal for clarification of its preservatory order,” Mahmud said. “Instead, it chose to act as an adverse umpire rather than a neutral arbiter.”
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According to Mahmud, preservation orders are intended to maintain an existing situation until the courts resolve a dispute, not to create an administrative vacuum.
Another prominent lawyer and activist, Inibehe Effiong, warned that the development could undermine confidence in Nigeria’s democratic process.
ADC In Disarray
“The ADC is not my cup of tea,” Effiong said, “but there is now reasonable basis to infer the existence of a well-orchestrated conspiracy to truncate contested and credible elections in 2027.”
Effiong also raised a fundamental legal question: whether disputes over the internal leadership of political parties should even be subject to judicial intervention.
“It used to be the law that such matters were regarded as internal affairs of political parties,” he said.
For critics of the electoral commission, the timing of the decision has only deepened suspicions.
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The ADC had been gaining significant political traction following the entry of high-profile figures, such as Kwankwaso, as well as ongoing discussions about a broader opposition coalition ahead of the next presidential election.
By effectively suspending engagement with the party at such a moment, critics argue, INEC’s decision risks altering the dynamics of the emerging political contest.
Yet the commission has firmly rejected these accusations. INEC Chairman Professor Joash Amupitan has insisted that the commission’s actions were guided strictly by the need to avoid actions that could complicate ongoing litigation.
“If the David Mark faction of the ADC are saying that INEC has taken sides, it is not true,” he said in a televised interview.
But the controversy has continued to deepen, drawing in lawyers, activists, political leaders and civil society groups, who fear that the unfolding dispute could have far-reaching implications for Nigeria’s democracy.
The ADC has, meanwhile, strongly rejected the explanation offered by Amupitan, over the commission’s decision to withdraw recognition from the David Mark–led leadership of the party. In a detailed response, the party said the interpretation advanced by the INEC chairman stretches the meaning of the Court of Appeal’s directive beyond its legal intent and risks undermining the constitutional rights of political parties to organise and function.
The commission had argued that its decision to suspend engagement with the party’s leadership and decline monitoring of congresses was based on a preservatory order of the Court of Appeal directing parties to maintain the status quo pending the determination of the substantive case.
But the ADC insisted that the order does not amount to a blanket suspension of the party’s internal activities.
According to the party’s spokesman, Balaji Abdullahi, preservation orders issued by courts are intended to prevent actions that could irreversibly alter the subject matter of litigation, not to paralyse the internal functioning of a political party.
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“The right of a political party to organise congresses and conventions is constitutionally guaranteed and has not been suspended by any competent court,” Abdullahi said.
He further argued that INEC’s statutory duty is limited to monitoring party activities upon notification and that the validity of such activities does not depend on the commission’s participation.
Two Faces of the Law
Legal practitioners have continued to weigh in on the controversy, with several senior lawyers warning that administrative caution must not translate into restrictions on constitutional freedoms.
Human rights lawyer and Senior Advocate of Nigeria, Femi Falana, argued that while INEC must comply with court orders, the commission must avoid interpretations that could create an unnecessary vacuum within a political party.
Falana noted that disputes over party leadership are common in democratic systems and should ordinarily be resolved through internal mechanisms or judicial processes without regulatory institutions effectively shutting down the party’s operations.
According to him, the constitutional right to political association implies that parties must be allowed to continue functioning unless a court expressly restrains them.
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Other lawyers and commentators have echoed similar concerns, arguing that Nigeria’s democratic system depends on the existence of credible opposition platforms capable of competing freely within the political space.
They warn that any action that appears to weaken opposition parties could erode public confidence in electoral institutions and deepen existing political tensions in the country.
Amid the growing controversy, statements from leading figures within the Tinubu camp have further fuelled speculation that the party may be unsettled by the rapid rise of the ADC as a potential coalition platform for opposition forces ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, recently dismissed the idea of an opposition coalition capable of challenging Tinubu, describing it as a gathering of politically displaced figures seeking relevance.
While Wike’s remarks were framed as a critique of opposition leaders, political observers note that his repeated references to the ADC-led coalition suggest that the development has attracted considerable attention within the ruling establishment.
Similarly, the National Secretary of the APC, Senator Ajibola Basiru, has openly called on INEC to go beyond the derecognition of the David Mark–led leadership and completely deregister the ADC.
Basiru argued that the party’s poor electoral performance in recent elections makes a strong case for its removal from the list of registered political parties.
“You look at the bye-election in 17 constituencies, they won no seat. FCT Area Council elections, they won no chairmanship or councillorship seat. Ordinarily, INEC should deregister them because they are just wasting the time and resources of Nigerians,” Basiru said.
Political analysts say the call for deregistration, coming at a time when several opposition figures are converging around the ADC, reinforces the perception that the ruling party is uneasy about the emergence of a potential coalition platform capable of consolidating opposition votes ahead of the next presidential election.
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The leadership controversy within the ADC itself has further complicated the situation.
The Catspaw
At the centre of the dispute is Nafiu Bala, who had earlier served as deputy national chairman of the party before the emergence of former Senate President David Mark as the new national chairman following negotiations among opposition leaders.
At the time, Bala reportedly publicly celebrated the decision to step aside. In a now deleted post said to have been shared on his Facebook page, he reportedly praised the leadership transition and expressed support for the broader effort to reposition the party.
However, in a dramatic reversal that has deepened the controversy, Bala later denied signing the resignation letter that paved the way for Mark’s emergence.
The conflicting positions have raised questions about what may have transpired behind the scenes in the party’s leadership dispute.
Some party insiders suggest that external political pressure may have played a role in the sudden reversal.
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These suspicions were heightened by claims from former ADC National Chairman, Ralph Nwosu, who alleged that representatives of the ruling party approached him with what he described as a “huge offer” aimed at undermining the emerging opposition coalition.
According to Nwosu, he declined the offer, insisting that he would not compromise the independence of the party. Although he did not provide details of the alleged offer, the claim has added another layer of intrigue to the unfolding controversy.
Within political circles, some commentators speculate that not everyone within the party may have been able to resist similar inducements, a possibility that could explain the sudden shift in Bala’s position.
While these claims remain unproven, they have intensified public debate about the political stakes surrounding the future of the ADC.
International Attention
The controversy has also begun to attract international attention. A United States-based policy and advocacy firm, Von Batten-Montague York L.C., recently announced plans to formally engage members of the U.S. Congress and the administration of President Donald Trump over the developments surrounding the ADC.
The firm warned that the decision by INEC to withdraw recognition of the party’s leadership could undermine political participation and electoral credibility in Nigeria ahead of the next presidential election.
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For many observers, the growing international interest underscores the significance of the unfolding political developments.
Nigeria, as Africa’s largest democracy, occupies a central position in the continent’s political and economic landscape, and the credibility of its electoral system carries implications far beyond its borders.
Yet, analysts caution that the domestic political consequences may be even more profound.
The country is already grappling with widespread economic hardship, rising public frustration and declining confidence in political institutions.
In such an environment, some commentators warn that any perception that opposition parties are being deliberately weakened could further inflame public dissatisfaction.
For the Tinubu administration, the challenge may, therefore, lie in balancing political advantage with the broader need to preserve democratic credibility.
CREDIT: HALLMARK
