Mathematically, How Super Eagles Can Still Qualify For 2026 World Cup Even If South Africa Wins
Super Eagles of Nigeria may still have a lifeline in their quest for a place at the 2026 FIFA World Cup despite sitting third in Group C and facing a tricky final showdown against the Benin Republic in Uyo at 5 p.m. today.
Fresh hope arrived for the Super Eagles after the Confederation of African Football (CAF), in collaboration with FIFA, approved a key rule adjustment aimed at addressing imbalances in the qualification process following Eritrea’s withdrawal from Group E.
The decision, which affects how the four best group runners-up are determined, could tilt the odds slightly in Nigeria’s favour.
According to the revised guideline, points gained against the lowest-ranked team in each group will now be excluded when comparing the second-placed teams across the nine qualification groups. The adjustment, CAF explained, is meant to ensure fairness, as some groups have fewer teams due to withdrawals.
CAF Director of Competitions, Samson Adamu, confirmed the amendment in a circular dated March 14, 2025, saying it was necessary to “maintain sporting integrity and ensure balanced comparison” among all teams. “This change is essential to guarantee fairness in a competition format affected by unforeseen team withdrawals,” Adamu stated.
The update, consistent with Article 11.5 of the FIFA World Cup 2026 Preliminary Competition Regulations, could reshape the entire playoff picture.
How the Rule Change Affects Nigeria
Several teams are set to lose ground under the new system. Burkina Faso, Gabon, DR Congo, and Madagascar, who each collected six points from their respective bottom-placed opponents, stand to forfeit those gains.
Nigeria, on the other hand, might benefit, as they only managed two points against Zimbabwe, currently at the foot of Group C. Cameroon could also drop four points, a shift that could lift Nigeria’s standing among the top second-placed sides.
With the new calculations in play, Gabon (16 points) and Burkina Faso (15 points, fixtures completed) are leading the race for the four available playoff slots. The remaining two spots are being contested by Niger (15 points, fixtures completed), Cameroon (14 points), DR Congo (13 points), Uganda (12 points), and Nigeria (12 points, +3 goal difference).
What The Super Eagles Must Do
If the Super Eagles beat Benin Republic by a narrow 1-0 scoreline or any two-goal margin, and South Africa also win their fixture, Nigeria would move to 15 points, enough to rank among the best second-placed teams.
The final outcome, however, hinges on results from other key fixtures across the continent:
- Niger have completed their matches and can only wait.
- Cameroon hosts Angola and are expected to win.
- DR Congo face Sudan at home and are strong favorites.
- Uganda travel to Algeria, where a victory seems unlikely.
Two Possible Routes for the Super Eagles
1. Direct Qualification (as Group Winners):
To win Group C outright, Nigeria must defeat Benin Republic by at least two goals (without conceding) and South Africa must lose or draw their game against Rwanda.
2. Playoff Qualification (as one of the best runners-up): If Nigeria win Benin Republic and South Africa beat Rwanda, the Super Eagles will not top Group C. But they could still qualify through the CAF playoff ranking of second-placed teams, depending on results elsewhere.
For now, Nigeria’s fate rests not only on their performance in Uyo but also on matches in Yaoundé, Kinshasa, and Algiers.
A strong win tonight could keep the World Cup dream alive. Anything short of that, and the Super Eagles may miss consecutive tournaments for the first time since 1994.
